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crisis: real economy



It was under-appreciated [and remains so] that the gambling of the 'shadow' banking system, together with the involvement of the retail banks, has starved the real economy of considerable investment; it is largely this that has made the problem seem intractable and the gazillions of our taxpayers money thrown at it ineffective.

We also have the problem that the boom of the recent past - a mirage as is now better understood - was based on debt as a consumer led credit economy. Trust in credit, the thing that makes it work, is now absent and we know we have to remodel our economies and the form of capitalism which has just collapsed.

Together with the actions taken by central banks such as The Fed and the Bank of England we appear to have a total world debt sloshing around of 250trn - use any currency, it is a frightening figure. On the basis of pessimistic assumptions payback on this would take about five centuries.

While credit systems work at around a century to pay back if it really had to be, half a millennium seems a very long time to expect confidence to be resuscitated. All the problems of not having recognised these features of this crisis are becoming increasingly obvious in the difficulty in getting any initiative to get things moving again.

Cutting interest rates to near nought [zero] never looked anything but panic to me. And my first rule over debt problems is never take a decision while you are panicking.

There is considerable fear that the extent to which money has been printed during this crisis means that inflation is going to take off in a spectacular way - by my estimate at the end of 2010 or into 2011. Meanwhile the sharp bursting of all the bubbles is making for a deflationary experience in everything but food!

Joseph Harris - Debt Control Man, Author of Control Your Debt Crisis on Your Own Terms

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