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economics



Economics is, as you would expect, the study of economies. There are a lot of highly paid economists in governments and elsewhere; unfortunately they seemed not to have an understanding of the economy – hence the Credit Crunch and a grim outlook!

Okay, let's be fair, they were as caught up the mass mania of measuring prosperity and economic activity only in money as were most of the rest of us. But any claim they have to be the gurus of economic policy are shredded – along with all the other incriminating documents and computer drives!

What perhaps they, and those who rely on them, fail to understand is that economists are historians. They feed on the detritus of statistical facts. A statistical fact is collected and confirmed; it is also subject to the terms and definitions of the collection, and the interpretation of the information. Disraeli's* comment remains true 'There are lies, there are damned lies, and then there are statistics!'

The collection of statistics – joking apart, great care goes in to that – is about things that have happened. And most economic figures relate to periods of time, so average out the experience being recorded. In stable conditions this is fine as the source of forecasts. But in a fast moving and unprecedented situation, such as the Credit Crunch, neither these statistics, nor past experience offers much help.

*Benjamin Disraeli, Lord Beaconsfield (Conservative 'one-nation Toryism' inventor), was one of the great British Prime Ministers of the 19th century. With William Ewart Gladstone (Tory then Liberal) they dominated the century politically and between them held the Premier post six times for a total of 20 years in the 26 years from 1868 to 1894.

Disraeli was a flatterer and a favourite of Queen Victoria, but of Gladstone she complained 'He addresses me as if I were a public meeting.' Which is probably why Disraeli became Lord Beaconsfield, and Gladstone didn't.

Gladstone entered parliament in 1832 and retired as Prime Minister (for the fourth time) in 1894 at the age of 85 – which makes John McCain a mere stripling! Disraeli entered parliament in 1837 and is best remembered for organising purchase of the Suez Canal for Britain

Joseph Harris - Debt Control Man, Author of Control Your Debt Crisis on Your Own Terms

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